Here's the winning pick:
Carolina 20 (two field goals, two touchdowns)
New England 19 (four field goals, one touchdown)
bank it!
Posted by Mitchell at January 29, 2004 12:16 PMI predict the Patriots blowing-out the Panthers. I'm not sure on a score yet. Mitchell, I assume you're not coming to Don's house?
Posted by: Reid at January 29, 2004 05:03 PMMitchell, your guess was very close to the real deal! What was the spread?
Reid, did you have fun at Don's?
Posted by: pen at February 2, 2004 07:31 PMEverybody had fun at Don's. This is a well designed website by the way. I'm very impressed, and I really take my hat off to the designers.
But the reason I'm writing is that I really thought that Coach Fox (Panther's coach) lost the game for his team. First of all the first two point conversion when the score was 21-16 with about 12 or so minutes left in the game. Follow this progression on the score, if he kicks the extra point the score is 21-17. Panthers then scored again (amazingly) and then had he not have to go for two again the score would be 21-24. New England then scored and had the Panthers not lose two points in their hapless two point attempts, the Pats kick the extra point and the score would have been 28-24. Panthers score again (even more amazingly then the last) and kick the extra point making the game 31-28. New England comes down kicks the field goal to tie (not win).
Second error, calling timeout at the New England's 16ish with about 1:40 left to go in the game. Panther's should have huddled (run some time off the clock), because at the 16 or so the Panther's had at most 8 more plays, with only one chance to get a first down (at the 6 or so). With about 1:20 and 3 timeouts, a team could easily run 10 plays (8 second a play). Fox doesn't call timeout and New England instead of having 1 minute plus on the clock to kick a field goal has 40 or so seconds (at most).
Would anyone consider that the coach lost the game? I rarely blame (one player/coach), but I would say not managing the score or the clock down the stretch puts him pretty close.
Posted by: Don at February 2, 2004 09:44 PMYeah, we had fun. We grilled some brats (after cooking them in bear, butter and onions). It didn't turn out too well, although other people seemed to like it. Maybe next year you can come. (I know Grace didn't want to watch the game.)
Re: the game.
It was one of the most exciting Superbowls I have seen. However, a part of me feels a little disappointed.
For one thing, I don't think the Patriots defense was really that great. I mean, I get the feeling that he really used smoke-and-mirrors to get the defense to play. I mean, it seemed like he did everything to stop the run, and forced Carolina t beat them with the pass. Well, Carolina almost did just that, but not with a very well-executed passing game. Jake Delhomme may become a fine quarterback some day, but he didn't really look it yesterday, despite his performance. What I mean is that the Patriots pass defense was really terrible. Jake looked like he was throwing the ball in a hapzard fashion or there was major blown coverage. (That's the kind of stuff you see in High School or College, and you'd almost never see that in a solid pro defense. More and more, you see good NFL teams blow coverage like that. Again, I think the league is too diluted.) You don't see that, not from a defense that basically prevented Carolina from passing their own 30 for practically the entire first half! Can you think of a time when a defense has so thoroughly dominated another team, and then all of a sudden the other team drives the ball down the field 80 yards, under 3 minutes for the score?! I've never seen anything like it.
The defense was designed to take away the run, but left them really, really vulnerable to the pass, so much so that a mediocre passing offense could do very well.
That's very different from what the Patriots offense did to the Carolina defense, imo. I think the Carolina defense was solid, but they were worn out, and the Patriots play calling and balance was really terrific. We all know about the Patriots passing offense, but they also had a legitimate running back in Antwain Smith. The guy is a horse. (I'd say he's a better running back, then Jack is a quaterback.) But the play calling by Weiss(sp?) was really terrific, especially in that first scoring drive. I love watching that. I guess, what I'm saying is that the Patriots didn't score because of the Carolina defense was poor. It was just good offense. I don't think I can say the same thing for the Patriots defense, however.
Still, it was an exciting game.
Posted by: Reid at February 2, 2004 09:47 PMFirst of all, where did you guys get bear? :)
Second, yeah, Jake was a little sloppy in the first quarter, but the secondary seemed to be keeping people covered quite well. Steve Smith was only thrown to, like, three times in the first half, I think, and I know you noticed how much time Jake had to get rid of the ball--we wouldn't notice how great the Carolina O-line was if Jake's targets had been open sooner.
I'm inclined to go along with Don. It was an ill-advised 2-point try (as Phil Simms kept reminding us) and I didn't even think about the clock-management, but you seem to have a point. I don't know if you could say he lost the game, though--I mean, it really could have gone either way.
It's Tom Brady who got Ant Smith to run well. He's not that good a RB, as he's proven for most of the season.
But you have a point about the Carolina offense suddenly getting into gear after being shut down. But the Panthers started the game with the plan everyone expected--hand off to Davis, hand off to Davis, hand off to Davis. It wasn't working. Jake was forced to throw a lot of third-and-longs. Once they opened it up a little, they moved the ball a lot better.
Great game. I enjoyed just about every minute of it.
I fell asleep during the halftime show (I hate halftime shows!), so I missed the best part, I guess.
Posted by: Mitchell at February 2, 2004 10:50 PMNah the game much better than the halftime show (even with the "extra show"). And I think you can get bear at most local grocery stores now, try checking it out.
Pats defense: Their defense from what I've seen prior to this game is great. Great team speed and decently tough up the middle (mostly because of T Washington). Their demise (sort of speak) during the game was that I think they were playing too conservatively. That's far from the defense that we saw them play all year. I'm not sure if it was because they were respecting the run too much or because they were playing not to lose. I find it hard to imagine the defense not being able to switch gears from stopping the run to stopping the pass. It's the 20 game of the season for heaven's sake.
To me the Pats did great against the pass all year (look how foolish they made Manning look, not to mention Quincy Carter). I think they (the Pats) will show how good of a defense they really are again next year. We are giving too much credit and blame to Mr. Bill (help me Mr. Bill).
I think Don has a point about Foxes coaching moves. But I'm leary of saying going for two caused his team to lose. So many things could have happened after that.
Calling the time-out was more of his fault--either because of a mental error or his team wasn't prepared. Then again, something could have been wrong with a player that they really needed a T.O., but that seems unlikely.
Let's not forget Kasay's kick-off out of bounds. That was really huge.
Finally, I think Antowain Smith is a solid runner, but the Patriots rely on a spread offense. Smith is not going to gain huge yards in that kind of system. Weiss started to go to more traditional formations and when they ran Smith off-tackle they seemed to be very effective.
Posted by: Reid at February 3, 2004 06:36 AM