I know the 2024 season isn’t over, but the coaching carousel has begun, and I wanted to discuss that.
First, Pete Carroll has interviewed with the Bears and will be interviewing with the Raiders. In terms of culture-building and working with players, getting them to perform at their best, I think he’s an attractive candidate for both franchises. With the Bears, Carroll’s old school philosophy is the Bears traditional approach. It would be great to see a physical team with a great defense and run game. Plus, I think he has the QB of the future, and he would know how to utilize a sandlot QB. With the Raiders, his philosophy of letting the players be themselves would make a good fit. But they have a big holes to fill, especially at the QB position. I think the key is who his coordinators will be, as well as the GM. Also, is he going back to the 4-3 or will he install a 3-4. (He’s a less attractive candidate if it’s the latter.) Depending on the alternatives, I’d be happy if he were got the Raiders job.
Second, Mike Vrabel. I would like him to get the Raiders job, too, but it sounds like he’s the next Patriots coach. I hope not. I’ve grown to dislike Robert Kraft, so I’m rooting against the Patriots.
The Raiders hire Pete Carroll
I’m really excited about this hire, and feel a level of enthusiasm and hope that I haven’t felt in a long time. Don’t get me wrong–I think Carroll and the Raiders have a long road ahead. Additionally, Carroll’s success will depend on several things, all of which are far from guaranteed:
Without #1, he’ll never build a Super Bowl contender, and he’ll need a solid roster just to not be at the bottom of the AFC West.
Without #2, he won’t be able to successfully install his culture–which I think one of the best things about him. (The other great thing is the way he handles the psychology and motivation of the players.)
Without #3, especially the DC, I’m not sure if he’ll be to build a great defense. I would love to know what kind of defense Pete plans to build. In his last years with Seattle he tried to install a 3-4, primarily because he felt like teams figured out his 4-3, cover-3 defense. If he goes back to the 4-3, what new wrinkle will he add?
Mitchell, I really think you would like Carroll, if you got to know his approach and philosophy. I feel like you would like working for him. Yes, his rah-rah approach may turn you off, but he really allows individuals to be themselves, and he emphasizes building people up, eschewing punishment (to a fault at times).
Potential OCs
I heard Darrell Bevell is high on the list. That would be a meh pick to me. He’s not awful, and there could be worse picks, but he’s not exceptional, either. I’m more intrigued by someone like Klint Kubiak, but I don’t know if Kubiak would want to work under Pete.
Potential DCs
I heard Pat Graham, the current Raider DC, is up for consideration. I kind liked Graham, especially what I saw when he was with the Giants. I think he’s a 3-4 guy, though, and I guess if Pete wants to go the 3-4 route, that would be a good choice. Still, I feel like he should get a 4-3 guy, and just modify the defense. With that in mind, I thought of someone like Dennis Allen. His defenses never really stood out for me (although the Saints had some strong defenses in the last few years), but I believe he’s a 4-3 guy, and I feel like other people think highly of him. I feel like Pete would be able to help a 4-3 DC more than a 3-4 DC, so the former is a better option.
Cowboys choose Brian Schottenheimer as the new HC
I’m rooting for Schotty. I like him, and I like his father, but I’m skeptical he’ll make a great HC. I agree with those who think he’ll be a guy who just do whatever Jerry wants. He doesn’t strike me as guy who will assert himself and his own vision. Again, I hope he works out, because he seems like a cool guy.
Don, what’s your feeling about him?
Brian is highly regarded in terms of being an OC. I’m not sure what kind of input he had this year though, with McCarthy still being there. I’m happy to get Schottenheimer over Kellen Moore or Deion for sure. I thought Kellen’s offense has never looked better at Philly, but I don’t think he’s head coaching material. I’m totally not into Deion’s hype train. I think he can recruit, but that won’t serve him well in the NFL.
I think my first choice would have been Aaron Glenn, but who knows how good he would be as well. He just sort of reminds me of DeMeco Ryans for some reason, a little stoic and yet with some attitude. They need a guy like that.
I like the Eberflus hire, but would have been happy if they took the chance and made Al Harris DC.
I feel like Schotty is a competent OC at best, although I do think he can install a good, physical run game. At times I felt like the offense can be too vanilla. Still, if he can get the run game going, and make the offense more balanced, that should make the offense better. I have no idea how he’ll be as an HC, though.
I never had a strong, positive impression of Aaron Glenn. Then again, I felt the same about Ryans, and he seems like a solid HC.
I saw that Cowboys hired the Cardinals OC. I think the Cardinals went to a more power run-blocking style, and they had some really good success with this. This is Schotty’s favored style, so the match seems really good. It may signal more running and run-based offense for the Cowboys (and I’m guessing they’re going to draft or pick up a FA RB).
The Cowboys hired the Cardinal’s offensive line coach (I’m not sure if that’s what you meant.). I think Dallas’ o-line, despite the amount of draft capital spent, hasn’t been as good as it should be. I’m hoping this guy is the change that is needed.
But I agree that this hire speaks of a run first offense.
Pete chooses his coordinators
OC: Chip Kelly
DC: Patrick Graham
ST: Tom McMahon
Graham and McMahon are holdovers. When Graham was the Giants DC, he never stood out as an elite coach, but he was good enough to make me somewhat pleased when he first came to the Raiders. (The defense didn’t look very good last year, but I believe they had injuries.) As for McMahon, I really don’t have an opinion about him.
Besides their coaching, the virtue of these hires is that both coaches know the players, and vice-versa, so there really shouldn’t be much of a transition—or at least the transition should be minimal or easier.
Kelly is a new and somewhat surprising element–especially if Kelly relies heavily on the hurry-up. I don’t watch college football so I don’t know anything about Kelly’s offense (at OSU or UCLA). Based on watching some video clips, the offense seems to run primarily from the gun (as it did in Philly). Can Kelly have a great run game from the gun, especially if the QB isn’t a running threat? Does this mean they’re going to prioritize a QB who is a running threat?
The one thing that is a concern is if these coordinators buy in to Pete’s philosophy and can effective instill it in the players.
Edit
I may have said this before, but if Graham is a 3-4 guy, I think Pete’s ability to enhance the defense will be limited. Basically, the quality of the defense will depend almost solely on Graham (in terms of coaching).
Yes, I meant the Cardinals OL coach. (I also kinda like the Cardinals OC.)
Klint Kubiak the new Seattle OC
The pick makes sense, and I’m more positive than negative on this. I wish I were more confident that Klint could replicate what his father could do. I really didn’t see that clearly when I watched the 2024 Saints offense. I will be excited if he’s on the same level as his father.
Pete Carroll and John Spytek’s first press conference
I watched the whole thing, and I’m excited about Carroll being the coach. I just hope Mark Davis lets Carroll establish his culture there, and that he and Spytek can work well together.
AFC West is really tough. The Raiders are going to have to really upgrade their roster to be competitive. I don’t think Carroll–or the assistants he’ll likely bring in–are so good that they will have a chance to win the division.
Maybe he’ll prove me wrong and bring in some really great assistants.
I’m getting excited about Chip Kelly as an OC
I saw a video on Kelly’s UCLA offense–specifically the run plays. I also watched the Michigan-OSU game from this past season, watching almost all of the OSU offensive sequences. There was no really hurry-up (except near the end of the half), but I would say the offense went to the line of scrimmage fairly early (by about 10 seconds after the start of the play clock). They would then snap the ball with about 10 seconds left, on average.
The offense seemed very conservative–almost too conservative. There just seemed to be a lot of running plays. I almost felt like I was watching an option offense at times.
My overall impression is that the offense was about physicality and ball control, almost more than scoring. I like that, but I think would like the passing game to be involved more–specifically, I felt like the mix of run and pass wasn’t that good; there wasn’t a good flow, going from one to the other, in a way that would keep the defense off balance.
If this an accurate depiction of what Kelly’s offense will look like in the NFL, it matches Carroll’s philosophy, and I’m interested in seeing how it plays out.
Also, given what I saw, I would expect a QB that is a threat to run the ball, which would decrease the chances of older QBs like Russ or Cousins. The OSU QB didn’t seem like a great runner, but I don’t see how a good running QB wouldn’t make this offense function a lot better. (The ran almost every play from the gun, it seemed like.) If they can get a solid dual-threat QB, the offense can be like the Ravens
With that said, I could see Justin Fields being a viable option–and I’m don’t really care for Fields. (I’m not comfortable calling him a “dual-threat” because I don’t think his passing is all that great.) If I were him, I’d be interested in playing in this offense. I could see someone like Daniel Jones being a decent fit, too. Maybe there’s a rookie QB who is also a good runner.
I could be wrong, though. Again, the OSU QB didn’t seem like a great runner. And when Kelly was at Philly, he had Foles and Bradford (which I thought were mistakes in a way). If they do get a more pocket QB, I would think the OL or the run game will have to be really good.
Anyway, I’m really curious to see this offense and the Raiders overall. I’m really interested in knowing if Carroll will tweak his approach to coaching, e.g., giving more autonomy to the DC and OC. I think he may be able to get better results if he does this–assuming Graham and Kelly have what it takes to be really good.
Who Will Russell Wilson Play for in 2025?
The sense I’m getting is that Russ may not be with the Steelers. I think that’s a good spot for him, unless the OL and defense regress. What teams would be a good landing spot for Russ? To me, he needs a team with either a really good OL or run game, along with decent pass-catchers, and strong defense.
Off the top of my head, the teams that really fit this description already have a QB (e.g., Eagles, Lions, Bucs, Ravens). The first team that comes to mind are the Browns, if they can keep Chubb and Garrett. The Giants are another team that comes to mind is the Giants–at least in terms of the Giants having an interest. Another good landing spot might be the Saints, but I’m unsure of the type of offense Kellen Moore would run. I would like the Raiders, but I would prefer to see a QB who solid running threat. (I wouldn’t mind if Russ went there, though.) Russ might be a really good fit with the Niners, but I would hate for him to go there (and I doubt they’d move on from Purdy).
Edit:
I saw another potential landing spot for Russ: the Colts. This actually seems like a decent landing spot, as long as AR isn’t the definite starter (which I assumed he would be). As far as I know they have a good OL and run game, and good enough WRs. If this is true, and their defense improves, Indy, with Russ, could make some noise. (This is a better spot than the Giants, and right now I would say it’s better than the Raiders.)
I haven’t followed all of the Raiders picks closely, but I’m still excited about upcoming season. I actually preferred they draft an O-lineman or D-lineman with their first pick. Jeanty is small in stature, and I don’t care for backs like that. I hope he’s great and proves durable. He can make a huge difference if he’s great.
Even if the Raiders improve, the AFC West is going to be really difficult. The Broncos made some potentially great moves–particularly on defense, putting them in competition for the best in the league. Chargers could have improved their run game, which will make them tougher, and should be better in year 2 for Harbaugh.
I’m just hope the Raiders play better–defensively, running the ball and protecting it. If they can do that consistently–which also reducing the boneheaded plays–and take steps to becoming a more physical team, I’ll be happy.
Mitchell,
How are you feeling about the Raiders?
Don,
Any thoughts on the Cowboys? Did they pick up any good RBs? I feel like they didn’t do enough in that department. Do you think they improved on defense?
With Schotty, I think his offense is a better for team built around the defense. Unless the offensive roster is great, I don’t think the offenses will carry the team. I do think they’ll be more physical, but I think a lot of fans will get frustrated with it.
A lot of Cowboy insiders thought a receiver would be picked in the first round and they didn’t even pick one the entire draft. I personally liked the O-line pick in the first round even if it was a little high, particularly for a guard. I’m not as worried about the RB position. Outside of top tier RBs that go first round to early second round, I have a feeling there isn’t much difference between the rest of the bunch. The Cowboys got the fastest RB, Jaydon Blue, in the entire draft in the fifth round. I’m actually hoping that guy can play a little slot receiver or be the next Tony Dorsett.
I’m most curious/excited for the two DTs that was drafted late. I’m hoping these guys can plug holes and move bodies. They just need to keep guys off Micah, Kneeland, and Overshown, not necessarily be able to rush the passer or make a lot of tackles. People are especially high on Toia, the nose from UCLA, who plays at 345 pounds.
If Ezeiruaku (DE) and Revel (CB) are as good as people think, the Cowboys defense should be better especially mid-year when Diggs and Overshown return. They should also get Sam Williams back mid-year.
The offense on the other hand, if they cannot run the ball consistently, they will struggle with no help in the draft for Lamb.
He was an appealing prospect for the Hawks. He is stout, strong, hard working, and a good, alpha-male type leader. He had only one big problem: his speed. Not only was his 40 time super slow, but the 10 second split was really slow as well. There were questions he would be a good fit for the zone-blocking offense.
But Schotty is more of a gap-scheme guy, so this seems like the perfect fit for him.
I feel like that might be going too far. This draft was supposed to be deep in RB talent, too.
I’m more interested in the RB they got from Clemson (UDFA?). I only saw two or three runs, but he looked huge. If Javonte has tread on the tires and he can stay healthy, he’ll be a good fit for the system. I would have been happy if the Raiders got him.
To me, the iDL is the biggest question/issue. If they suck there, how are they going to compete with the Eagles–or the Lions or even the Packers? They have to be good against the run.
Oh, I’m pretty sure they will run the ball consistently, if he’s Schotty doesn’t stick with McCarthy’s offensive approach. How effective it will be is another question. But he run a lot, likely to the chagrin of fans.
Phil Mafah is the Clemson back and he was drafted in the seventh. His playing weight is about 230, I heard. Right now, it’s a crowded RB room and the Cowboys love Hunter Luepke, their existing fullback. Mafah will have to unseat a veteran like Miles Sanders or Deuce Vaughn to make the 55. You love yourself a big running back.
Definitely! And 230 fits the bill. Did Luepke play last year?
This will be Luepke’s third year. They play him at TE a little, a blocking back a little, and even running back. The old regime liked him a lot, so I assume he’s here to stay, and Dallas historically carries 3-4 TEs and only one fullback. New coaching staff though, so historically might not matter.
I wanted to add that if Dallas does keep 4 TEs, Mafah would probably have to unseat both Miles Sanders and Deuce Vaughn, not just one of them. Deuce Vaughn probably has one foot out the door if based on the old regime, though. He probably didn’t make the 48-game day roster more than half the time last year.
I asked about Luepke because the name sounds familiar, but I don’t recall seeing a FB with the Cowboys. (Maybe I saw him as a TE, though.)
Why does Mafah have to beat out Sanders *and* Vaughn? Who are the other RBs on the roster? If Mafah is really good on ST, he could get the spot.
Last year Dallas kept four RBs including Luepke and four TEs. So realistically Mafah could also beat out a TE if the total between these two positions stay at eight. I’m guessing, barring injury, Javonte Williams, Jaydon Blue, and Hunter Luepke are in. Leaving possibly one open RB spot between Sanders, Vaughn, and Mafah. If the Cowboys decide to keep Sanders and Vaughn, Mafah will not even make the 55. The roster total is 53, but I believe 2 practice squad guys can be restricted somehow. I’m not really sure how that works.
George Pickens to the Cowboys.
Pickens’s hands and body control are elite. He can be a great WR, but his off-field issues seem really bad (hence, the Steelers moving on). I don’t really like this move for the Cowboys. He could be really bring the team down if the don’t handle him properly (and maybe handlingly him properly involves cutting him).
Off-the-field issues can entail many things, none of which are good. In Picken’s case, his issues have to deal with his interactions with teammates and coaches, not unlawful acts. I don’t know which one I would prefer, but selecting a horrible teammate and employee is tough. I, too, wished they avoided Pickens. For one, the price was pretty high, although all future picks since this year’s draft is done. Two, he’s on his last year of his rookie contract, so he might be a rental even if he does well or maybe especially if he does well. The last confusing part is Schotty was emphasizing character guys. The Cowboys specifically went out to get character guys in this year’s draft. I know of at least four collegiate team captains that was picked in this year’s draft. I hope Pickens is worth the risk. He is a big missing piece to this team, however.
Jerry.
One way to look at the draft capital spent: it’s like using it on a high risk, high reward player. 3rd and whatever else they gave doesn’t seem too far-fetched.
The difference is that Tomlin gave up on him (according to reporting I saw), and that’s a real bad sign. I think the chances of him changing are really slim.
If Jerry was still in charge, the Cowboys would have gotten a flash WR and Shedeur.
I heard the rule of thumb in a trade of a recently drafted player is to give a draft choice one below the round the player was drafted. Pickens was drafted in the third, which would make his value a fourth round pick. However, the other rule of thumb is next year’s draft is worth one round more than this year’s draft. So in essence a fourth round pick this year is next year’s third round pick. So going by both rules, I guess the Cowboys got Pickens at value, essentially. But a third round pick for a possible rental is nuts to me unless you are really close to a championship team.
I think Jerry’s in charge, but my sense is that he chooses to defer to his son and scouts for the most part. But he can always override them, and this feels like such an example.
I don’t mind this–if the team believes Pickens has a solid chance of turning things around, attitude-wise. If he does, then they can work to re-sign him.
To me, the chances are low that he’ll turn things around. I’d guess 20%, but that’s more on the high side. I guess, if there’s a 1 in 5 chance he turns things around, maybe the draft picks are worth it.
What do you guys think about Nic Cage playing John Madden? I heard that bio-pic is being made. To me, it sounds like a good SNL sketch more than a good movie.
Don,
Did you see Dallas’s schedule? It looks pretty tough. Seahawks have a very manageable schedule. The Raiders seem to be somewhere in between the two.
Dallas’ schedule is extremely tough. The NFC East (Dallas’ division) plays the NFC North (Lions, Vikes, Packers, and Bears) and the AFC West (Broncs, Chiefs, Raiders, and Bolts). NFC North and AFC West are probably the best two divisions with both sending three of their four teams to the playoffs last year. Then you include the Eagles and Redskins in there twice each, it does seem like a mountain to climb. Dallas finished third in NFC East so they will also play the Panthers, Jets, and Cards who also finished third in their divisions.
Everyone in the NFC East will play the same opponents as the Cowboys except the last three games I listed. The only difference is the Eagles and Redskins don’t play themselves. The Giants is supposed to have the toughest schedule in NFL based on last years’ win totals.
I didn’t know this was the principle they used. Do they apply this to all the teams?
It sure looks that way. By the way, I just realized that teams in one division will play all the teams from one or two other divisions. Is that how it’s always been? It makes sense as it seems like a fair way to do things.
This is how the schedule has been made for a while now. I want to say like 10 years or so? All the teams in your division will play all the teams in one NFC division and one AFC division (8 games). You play all your division foes twice (6 games). And everyone in your division will match up with three other divisions and one will play one and two will play two and so on (3 games). This last part was only done twice a season when there were only 16 games.
The new talk has been to seed teams for the playoffs based on their win-loss record, not based on whether or not they won their division. But to make that fair, they would get rid of the playing everyone in your division twice a year and instead play everyone in your conference. Sixteen teams in each conference, playing everyone once would equal to fifteen games. That only leaves two games to play against the other conference. I doubt this will happen and the talk seem to mainly be from talk shows.
For some reason, for most of my life, I’ve been oblivious to the scheduling.
For the playoffs, why can’t they allow the division winners to get into the playoffs, but if another team has a better record, the division winner doesn’t get home field advantage, or they also don’t get a bye? (I’m pretty sure there’s a good answer to this, but I’m curious to know what it is.)
What’s you feelings on the tush-push? (The league voted to keep the play.)
I don’t like the idea of banning the specific play, but the wording of the proposal is something I support:
I don’t know about you guys, but I hate those “scrum” plays where the ball carrier gets stopped, but then his teammates push him or the pile forward for positive yards. That’s lame to me. This wasn’t allowed before, right? The refs would just blow the whistle, determining forward progress ended, if I recall. That was way better. The ball-carrier should be the one to advance the ball (not counting blocks by teammates).
As a fantasy owner of Hurts, I’m glad they didn’t ban it. Ha, just joking. I don’t have a strong feeling either way. I’m not sure how much help the guys in the back of the QB helps anyway. I don’t recall Hurts being stopped and the guys in the back push the pile forward. Seems like Hurts gets most of that on his own with the help of his linemen.
I’m pretty sure you could always push your teammate forward. You just cannot pull him forward. I think that defenses try to hold up the runner and strip the ball. So, to combat that, offensive linemen push the pile. That seems fair to me.
I think the difference might be that in the past, the officials would blow the whistle quicker with regard to the end of forward progress. In other words, if they thought the ball carrier really wasn’t advancing the ball, on their own, they’d blow the whistle.
I feel like it has to be something like that, because you never really saw the masses of players being pushed for more yards, not for the same duration.
Yeah, that’s not always the reason the ball carrier is just standing up. With Marshawn Lynch, they just had a hard time bring him down. Marshawn may not be moving, but he wouldn’t go down. And then teammates with push or hit him forward. I think they should eliminate that.
I was wrong. I heard that prior to rule change in 2005 (I think), that a teammate was not allowed to push the ball carrier. So it’s been legal for 20 years or so.
On a related note, someone brought to my attention that the defense is not allowed to push a teammate in the back. If they’re going to let offensive players push each to advance the ball, I feel like the defense should be allowed to push teammates to stop it.
But I still prefer that they don’t allow ball-carriers to be pushed, pulled, carried, etc. Shoot, if the tush push is allowed, why not allow an offensive player to “catapult” the ball-carrier over the LOS in goal line or short-yardage situations?